Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 63

Detroit Lions 20 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(10:32) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to ARI 2, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-30-K.Dorsey.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.12 EP
53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model