4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 12-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to DET 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.57 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 70, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP