Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 68

Detroit Lions 13 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 3-J.Fox punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback. PENALTY on ARI-13-K.Clark, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.98 EP
59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model