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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to DET 6, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 14 for 8 yards (44-O.Pappoe).

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP