Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 62

Denver Broncos 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(8:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to TB 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.83 EP
57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model