Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Denver Broncos 7

(9:37) 5-J.Camarda punts 67 yards to DEN 6, Center-86-E.Deckers. 19-M.Mims to DEN 33 for 27 yards (44-S.Tucker; 98-A.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model