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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at DEN 25 for 0 yards (15-N.Bonitto).

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.43 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model