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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 88

Denver Broncos 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to TB 41, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.56 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model