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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 20
Denver Broncos 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
What Actually Happened
(:06) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The Three Options
GO
+1.76 EP
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.74 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.02 EP
KICK
+2.69 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
- 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT
-0.00 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
