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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 45

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(6:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 14-C.Godwin.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.17 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model