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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 25

Denver Broncos 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.10 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model