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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 28 – Dallas Cowboys 18

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 11-J.Stout punts 31 yards to DAL 9, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-28-S.Kane.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.29 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP