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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 28 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.22 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP