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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 38

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(14:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 3-B.Cooks. Penalty on DAL-3-B.Cooks, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.43 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP