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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BAL 16, Center-44-T.Sieg. 3-D.Harty to BAL 29 for 13 yards (30-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.74 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 30, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model