Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Dallas Cowboys 3

(5:53) 11-J.Stout punts 36 yards to DAL 13, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.95 EP
57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP

KICK -1.03 EP

39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
61% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model