Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Detroit Lions 3

(4:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to DET 16, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-8-S.Dennis.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.60 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model