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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 3

Detroit Lions 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 39-J.Bates 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.66 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP