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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 26

Detroit Lions 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Kennedy [0-Y.Diaby].

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +1.66 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.04 EP