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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 90

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to DET 47, Center-86-E.Deckers. 11-K.Raymond to TB 44 for 9 yards (41-K.Kieft).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.15 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 90, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 47, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model