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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 11

Detroit Lions 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs to TB 6 for 5 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 29-C.Izien) [0-Y.Diaby].

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +4.56 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP