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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 36
Detroit Lions 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
What Actually Happened
(1:23) 26-J.Gibbs left end pushed ob at TB 13 for 23 yards (29-C.Izien).
The Three Options
GO
+1.45 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.45 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.06 EP
KICK
+1.00 EP
- 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
- 30% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT
-0.30 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
