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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Detroit Lions 9

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 5-J.Camarda punts 51 yards to DET 22, Center-86-E.Deckers. 11-K.Raymond to DET 32 for 10 yards (23-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model