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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.17 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model