4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 13

Detroit Lions 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 39-J.Bates 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.38 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP