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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 55

Detroit Lions 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(6:37) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery right end to DET 48 for 3 yards (9-J.Tryon; 54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.75 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model