Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 80

Detroit Lions 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

(8:11) (Punt formation) 3-J.Fox pass short middle to 33-S.Vaki to DET 37 for 17 yards (8-S.Dennis).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

What Happened

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.87 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP