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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 52

Denver Broncos 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to PIT 1, impetus ends at PIT 1, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-20-M.Burton.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.12 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model