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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 8-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback. ** Injury Update: PIT-44-T.Matakevich has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model