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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 16

Denver Broncos 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model