Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 84

Denver Broncos 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PIT 32, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-C.Austin to PIT 43 for 11 yards (34-J.Skinner). PENALTY on PIT-51-Ni.Herbig, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.34 EP
63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model