Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 83

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 8-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to DEN 31, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 45 for 14 yards (81-M.Pruitt). PENALTY on DEN-29-J.McMillian, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.34 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 83, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model