Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 66

Denver Broncos 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

(3:13) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to PIT 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-C.Austin to PIT 19 for 11 yards (20-M.Burton, 45-N.Adkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.90 EP
59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model