Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 8-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on DEN-2-P.Surtain, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.47 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model