Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 75

Denver Broncos 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(10:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PIT 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for -4 yards (40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model