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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 39

Denver Broncos 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:32) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 16-T.Franklin (6-P.Queen).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.73 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model