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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 63

Denver Broncos 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to PIT 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for 14 yards (43-K.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.65 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model