Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

(:38) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to KC 27, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 17-M.Hardman to KC 29 for 2 yards (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.96 EP
57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model