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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 3

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 42-C.Steele up the middle to CIN 2 for 1 yard (92-B.Hill; 55-L.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +4.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.27 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.73 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.60 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model