4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 25 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 8-R.Rehkow punts 53 yards to KC 14, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 25 for 11 yards (48-C.Adomitis).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.78 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model