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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 70

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 25

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 14-M.Araiza punts 63 yards to CIN 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-C.Jones to CIN 16 for 9 yards (2-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model