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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.20 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model