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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 50

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(:24) 14-M.Araiza punts 49 yards to CIN 1, impetus ends at CIN 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-N.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.32 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 50, worth -1.22 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model