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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 30

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.93 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model