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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 64

Chicago Bears 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 19-T.Taylor punts 41 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model