Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 98

Chicago Bears 10 – Houston Texans 19

(9:36) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to HOU 44, Center-46-S.Daly. 82-S.Sims to CHI 45 for 11 yards (92-D.Hardy, 21-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -4.01 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.52 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 98, worth -6.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model