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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 43

Houston Texans 19 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 6-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to CHI 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.74 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model