Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 75

Houston Texans 16 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to CHI 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Carter to CHI 34 for 1 yard (17-K.Boyd). ** Injury Update: CHI-45-A.Ogbongbemiga has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.53 EP
76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model