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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 48

Chicago Bears 10 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 19-T.Taylor punts 25 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.28 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model