Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 67

Houston Texans 16 – Chicago Bears 10

(11:26) 6-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to CHI 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.05 EP
52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model